JUE Insight: How do cities change when we work from home? Journal of Urban Economics, forthcoming
How would the shape of our cities change if there were a permanent increase in working from home? We study this question using a quantitative model of the Los Angeles metropolitan area featuring local agglomeration externalities and endogenous traffic congestion. We find three important effects: (1) Jobs move to the core of the city, while residents move to the periphery. (2) Traffic congestion eases and travel times drop. (3) Average real estate prices fall, with declines in core locations and increases in the periphery. Workers who are able to switch to telecommuting enjoy large welfare gains by saving commute time and moving to more affordable neighborhoods. Workers who continue to work on-site enjoy modest welfare gains due to lower commute times, improved access to jobs, and the fall in average real estate prices.
Keywords: COVID-19, Urban, Work from home, Commuting, Spatial equilibrium.
JEL Classification Numbers: E24, J22, J80, R14, R31, R33, R41.
with Andrii Parkhomenko
Appears in: CEPR Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, issue 61
If the 2020 surge in working from home became permanent, how would the distribution of jobs and residents within and across U.S. cities change? To study this question, we build a quantitative spatial equilibrium model of job and residence choice with commuting frictions between 4,502 sub-metropolitan locations in the contiguous U.S. A novel feature of our model is the heterogeneity of workers in the fraction of time they work on-site: some workers commute daily, some always work at home, while others alternate between working on-site and remotely. In a counterfactual where remote work becomes more common, residents move from central to peripheral areas within cities, and from large coastal to small interior cities, on average. The reallocation of jobs is less monotonic, with increases both in peripheral locations and in the highestproductivity metropolises. Agglomeration externalities from in-person interactions are crucial for welfare effects. If telecommuters keep contributing to productivity as if they worked on-site, better job market access drives considerable welfare gains, even for those who continue to commute. But if productivity declines in response to the reduction in face-to-face interactions, wages fall and most workers are worse off.
Keywords: Urban, Work from home, Commuting, Spatial equilibrium.
JEL Classification Numbers: E24, J81, R31, R33, R41.
The demographic transition, i.e., the move from a regime of high fertility/high mortality into a regime of low fertility/low mortality, is a process that almost every country on Earth has undergone or is undergoing. Are all demographic transitions equal? Have they changed in speed and shape over time? And, how do they relate to economic development? To answer these questions, we put together a data set of birth and death rates for 188 countries that spans more than 250 years. Then, we use a novel econometric method to identify start and end dates for transitions in birth and death rates. We find, first, that the average speed of transitions has increased steadily over time. Second, we document that income per capita at the start of these transitions is more or less constant over time. Third, we uncover evidence of demographic contagion: the entry of a country into the demographic transition is strongly associated with its geographic neighbors having already entered into the transition even after controlling for other observables. Next, we build a model of demographic transitions that can account for these facts. The model economy is populated by different locations. In each location, parents decide how many children to have and how much to invest in their human capital. There is skill-biased technological change that diffuses slowly from the frontier country, Britain, to the rest of the world.
Keywords: Demographic Transition, Skill-Biased Technological Change, Diffusion.
JEL Classification Numbers: J13, N3, O11, O33, O40.
How important are falling transport costs for patterns of population and income growth since 1000 CE? To answer this question, I build a quantitative dynamic spatial model with an agricultural and a non-agricultural sector, and endogenous fertility, migration, innovation and technology diffusion. In this model there exists an endogenous threshold for global transport costs, which is characterized by a simple network statistic. If transport costs are above this threshold, the world converges to a Malthusian steady state. If transport costs fall below this threshold, the world economy enters a process of sustained growth in population and income per capita. Taking this model to the data, I divide the globe into 2,249 3 degree by 3 degree quadrangles. I assign each location an agricultural potential determined by exogenous climate and soil characteristics. I infer bilateral transport costs by calculating the cheapest route between each pair of locations given the natural placement of rivers, oceans and mountains. I calibrate the model so that in the year 1000 the world is in a Malthusian steady state. I then drop the cost of water and land transport exogenously in a way that is consistent with historical evidence and track the endogenous evolution of population and income until the year 2000. Qualitatively, this exercise generates slow but accelerating growth in both population and income per capita for the first 800 years, an abrupt takeoff in growth after 1800 CE with Europe in the lead, and a large increase in the dispersion of income per capita after 1800 CE. Quantitatively, the model accounts for 55% of the variation in population density across 10 major regions in 1000 CE, 44% of the variation in income per capita across regions in 1800 CE, and is able to generate 43% of the overall dispersion in income per capita in 2000 CE.
Keywords: Geography, Trade, Diffusion, Structural change, Networks.
JEL Classification Numbers: R12, O18, F22, F12.
We study the impact of trade disruptions at different stages of development. We calibrate our two-country, three-sector model to Spain and the United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000, accounting for the inter-war trade collapse (IWTC) and the subsequent catch-up by Spain. In our model, trade disruptions have stronger impact with more distance to the technological leader and more trade openness. A collapse today (less distance, more openness) similar to the IWTC (more distance, less openness) decreases the capital stock thrice as much (12% instead of 4%). While the IWTC supported industrialization in Spain, higher costs today would lead to deindustrialization.
Keywords: Structural Transformation, International Trade.
JEL Classification Numbers: F11, F12, N10, N60.
Zoning and the Density of Development
We build a quantitative general equilibrium model of residence and employment choices under municipal density limits. Developers decide where to build, businesses decide where to offer jobs, and workers decide where to live and work given exogenous location characteristics, transport infrastructure, and zoning restrictions. We use employment, real estate, and commuting data to identify effective density restrictions for 3,917 Census tracts in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. We then compute two counterfactual scenarios. In the first, zoning restrictions on density are relaxed to the level of downtown L.A. in all urban tracts. In the second, massive improvements to transport infrastructure eliminate congestion-related delays. Each change yields large welfare gains. The first scenario leads to larger increases in output and much larger decreases in real estate prices, while the second scenario brings larger reductions in average commuting time.